Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel · Referee Carlos Manuel Moedas Narciso Espadinha · Analysis updated 15:25 UTC
Aljustrelense vs Pinhalnovense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Aljustrelense and 1.22 for Pinhalnovense, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Aljustrelense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aljustrelense home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aljustrelense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Aljustrelense and 1.22 for Pinhalnovense, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–08.4%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Aljustrelense
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2021-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 0-2 (L)
- 2021-04-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Moura · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-2 (L)
Pinhalnovense
- 2022-01-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagos · 0-3 (L)
- 2022-01-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Moncarapachense · 0-3 (L)
- 2022-01-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Imortal Albufeira · 0-3 (L)
- 2021-12-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olhanense · 0-0 (D)
- 2021-12-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventude Évora · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2021-02-25T20:30:00.000Z · Aljustrelense 1-2 Pinhalnovense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H)
- 2020-11-15T11:00:00.000Z · Aljustrelense 1-3 Pinhalnovense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H)
- 2020-02-09T15:00:00.000Z · Aljustrelense 3-4 Pinhalnovense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D)
- 2019-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · Aljustrelense 2-2 Pinhalnovense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 20 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 50 |
| 2 | Amora | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 44 |
| 3 | Olhanense | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Louletano | 20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 34 |
| 5 | Moncarapachense | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | Pinhalnovense | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | Juventude Évora | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | -9 | 24 |
| 8 | Lagos | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 23 |
| 9 | Lusitano GC Évora | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 10 | Aljustrelense | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | -29 | 14 |
| 11 | Moura | 20 | 0 | 4 | 16 | -26 | 4 |
| 12 | Armacenenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.