Recreation Park · Analysis updated 06:37 UTC
Alloa Athletic vs Cove Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Alloa Athletic and 0.81 for Cove Rangers, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Alloa Athletic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Alloa Athletic win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alloa Athletic home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cove Rangers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alloa Athletic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 28% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Alloa Athletic and 0.81 for Cove Rangers, a combined 2.19 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Alloa Athletic
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs East Fife · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Annan Athletic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamilton Academical · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gala Fairydean Rovers · 2-2 (D)
Cove Rangers
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterhead · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Formartine United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs East Fife · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen of the South · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen U21 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 31 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Montrose | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 6 | Queen of the South | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 13 |
| 7 | Alloa Athletic | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alloa Athletic win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.