Alloa Athletic vs Falkirk Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Alloa Athletic and 2.25 for Falkirk, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Falkirk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Falkirk win

65.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alloa Athletic home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Falkirk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Alloa Athletic win16%

Draw19%

Falkirk win66%

Double chance 1X

34%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

0–29.8%
1–29.8%
0–18.7%
1–18.7%
0–37.4%

Recent form

Alloa Athletic

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gala Fairydean Rovers · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian U21 · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs East Kilbride · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Airdrie United · 0-1 (L)

Falkirk

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · Alloa Athletic 1-1 Falkirk (League Cup)
2024-07-06T13:00:00.000Z · Alloa Athletic 2-2 Falkirk (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · Alloa Athletic 2-2 Falkirk (League One)
2024-01-27T15:00:00.000Z · Alloa Athletic 0-5 Falkirk (League One)
2023-10-28T14:00:00.000Z · Alloa Athletic 0-3 Falkirk (League One)
2023-08-26T16:30:00.000Z · Alloa Athletic 1-4 Falkirk (League One)
2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Alloa Athletic 1-4 Falkirk (League One)
2023-02-18T15:00:00.000Z · Alloa Athletic 0-1 Falkirk (League One)
2023-02-07T19:45:00.000Z · Alloa Athletic 1-1 Falkirk (League One)
2023-01-21T15:00:00.000Z · Alloa Athletic 1-2 Falkirk (FA Cup)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Falkirk win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.