Argentina · Primera Nacional · Matchweek 3318:30

2 – 1

Saturday, 10 October 2026

Estadio Tres de Febrero · Analysis updated 10:01 UTC

Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Almagro and 0.92 for Chacarita Juniors, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Chacarita Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.8% probability

High confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

0.78 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Almagro home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chacarita Juniors away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chacarita Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 29% / 34% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Almagro and 0.92 for Chacarita Juniors, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Almagro win29%

Draw34%

Chacarita Juniors win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals51%

Over 2.5 goals24%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

0–018.3%
0–116.8%
1–014.2%
1–113.1%
0–27.7%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.62 (model 67.4% vs market 57.6%, edge +9.8 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	1.62	57.6%	67.4%	1.48	+9.8
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.50	62.5%	63.0%	1.59	+0.5
Match result	Away	2.50	36.6%	36.9%	2.71	+0.3
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.33	70.5%	70.8%	1.41	+0.3
Match result	Draw	2.70	33.9%	33.9%	2.95	0.0
Match result	Home	3.10	29.5%	29.1%	3.44	-0.4
Double chance	Home/Away	1.40	67.0%	66.0%	1.52	-1.0
Both teams to score	Yes	2.20	42.4%	32.6%	3.07	-9.8

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Almagro

2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Chacarita Juniors · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin S.J. · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Nueva Chicago · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Temperley · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Maipu · 2-2 (D)

Chacarita Juniors

2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Almagro · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Patronato · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Colegiales · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Quilmes · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Midland · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	35	19	8	8	7	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	17	9	8	16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	17	7	10	15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	35	15	12	8	20	57
5	Colon Santa Fe	35	15	12	8	16	57
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	35	13	12	10	-1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	12	12	10	4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	13	9	12	1	48
9	Chaco For Ever	35	11	10	14	0	43
10	Los Andes	34	9	14	11	1	41
11	Racing Cordoba	34	10	10	14	-10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	8	15	11	-8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	8	14	12	-7	38
14	San Telmo	35	9	11	15	-12	38
15	Central Norte	34	7	16	11	-8	37
16	All Boys	34	6	17	11	-10	35
17	Acassuso	34	8	9	17	-10	33
18	San Miguel	34	6	14	14	-14	32
1	Tristan Suarez	35	16	15	4	18	63
2	Temperley	34	16	12	6	13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	16	10	8	9	58
4	Atlanta	34	18	4	12	7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	14	10	10	6	52
6	Midland	34	14	9	11	11	51
7	Colegiales	35	14	9	12	4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	13	9	12	7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	12	11	11	2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	11	13	11	2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	12	10	13	-6	46
12	Quilmes	35	11	9	15	2	42
13	Almagro	35	11	9	15	-10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	10	10	14	-11	40
15	Patronato	34	7	16	11	-4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	10	6	18	-9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	9	9	16	-9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	6	8	20	-32	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.