Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón · Referee Juan Luis Martinez-Osaba · Analysis updated 23:49 UTC
Almansa vs Hogar Alcarreño Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Almansa vs Hogar Alcarreño in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: no fixture-specific data has reached us for this match yet, so the figures below are a competition-average baseline with standard home advantage — not a rated model prediction on these two teams. They are excluded from our featured picks, accumulators and value selections, and will be replaced automatically once team and market data arrives.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
No fixture-specific data was available. These numbers are a competition-average prior with standard home advantage — not a model opinion on these two teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Almansa home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almansa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Almansa and 1.18 for Hogar Alcarreño, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Why this is a baseline estimate
No fixture-specific data was available for Almansa or Hogar Alcarreño yet, so these numbers are a Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 scoring average with standard home advantage rather than a rated model pick. They are excluded from our featured picks, accumulators and value selections, and are replaced automatically as team data arrives.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Recent form
Almansa
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Clemente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Marchamalo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchego · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Balazote · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Villacañas · 0-0 (D)
Hogar Alcarreño
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Toledo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Villarrobledo | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | CD Villa | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Villacañas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Illescas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Torrijos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | San Clemente | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Almansa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Marchamalo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | La Solana | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Quintanar del Rey | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Huracán Balazote | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.