· Analysis updated 23:27 UTC
Almansa vs Huracán Balazote Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Almansa and 0.88 for Huracán Balazote, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Almansa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Almansa win
69.4% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Almansa home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Huracán Balazote away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almansa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 18% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Almansa and 0.88 for Huracán Balazote, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 3–08.5%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
Almansa
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Clemente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Marchamalo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchego · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Balazote · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Villacañas · 0-0 (D)
Huracán Balazote
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Illescas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrobledo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Toledo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Clemente · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Toledo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Villarrobledo | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | CD Villa | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Villacañas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Illescas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Torrijos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | San Clemente | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Almansa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Marchamalo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | La Solana | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Quintanar del Rey | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Huracán Balazote | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Almansa win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.