Almansa vs Marchamalo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Almansa and 1.28 for Marchamalo, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Almansa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Almansa win

55.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Almansa home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Marchamalo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almansa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Almansa and 1.28 for Marchamalo, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Almansa win55%

Draw21%

Marchamalo win24%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–19.4%
2–07.5%
1–07.4%
3–16.6%

Recent form

Almansa

2022-05-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 3-0 (W)
2022-04-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Quintanar del Rey · 1-1 (D)
2022-04-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torrijos · 1-0 (W)
2022-03-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hogar Alcarreño · 3-2 (W)
2022-03-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Albacete II · 1-0 (W)

Marchamalo

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchego · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchego	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Torrijos	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Illescas	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Toledo	6	4	1	1	8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	3	3	0	7	12
6	CD Villa	6	4	0	2	3	12
7	Almansa	6	3	1	2	5	10
8	Tarancón	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Villacañas	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	San Clemente	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Noblejas	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	-3	4
15	La Solana	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	0	3	3	-7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Almansa win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.