Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2 · Analysis updated 16:54 UTC
Almazán vs UD Santa Marta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Almazán and 1.25 for UD Santa Marta, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Almazán the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Almazán home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UD Santa Marta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Almazán
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Colegios Diocesanos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villaralbo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arandina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Unionistas II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 1-1 (D)
UD Santa Marta
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos Promesas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Palencia CF · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colegios Diocesanos · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Almazán 1-1 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2026-01-10T15:15:00.000Z · Almazán 2-3 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-01-19T15:30:00.000Z · Almazán 1-1 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · Almazán 0-0 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-01-28T15:30:00.000Z · Almazán 1-0 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · Almazán 0-2 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-03-18T15:30:00.000Z · Almazán 1-1 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-11-20T15:30:00.000Z · Almazán 2-0 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-04-15T14:30:00.000Z · Almazán 2-1 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2021-12-04T15:30:00.000Z · Almazán 2-0 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burgos Promesas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | UD Santa Marta | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Atlético Mansillés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Cristo Atlético | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Arandina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Almazán | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Palencia CF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Calasanz de Soria | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Salamanca II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Guijuelo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Turégano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Unionistas II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 17 | Mirandés II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Colegios Diocesanos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.