Yanmar Stadion · Referee C. Ruperti · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.25 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Almere City FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Almere City FC win
65.5% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Almere City FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jong Ajax away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almere City FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.55 goals for Almere City FC and 1.25 for Jong Ajax, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–06.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 47.5% | 2.11 | +2.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.80 | 32.7% | 34.3% | 2.92 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.45 | 64.6% | 65.5% | 1.53 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.13 | 82.1% | 83.0% | 1.20 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.55 | 26.5% | 27.0% | 3.70 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 5.60 | 16.7% | 17.0% | 5.88 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 82.9% | 82.5% | 1.21 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.28 | 73.5% | 73.0% | 1.37 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.65 | 35.0% | 34.5% | 2.90 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.7% | 17.5% | 5.71 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 67.3% | 65.7% | 1.52 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 52.5% | 1.90 | -2.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Almere City FC
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordrecht · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heracles · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs MVV · 4-0 (W)
Jong Ajax
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs VVV Venlo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong Utrecht · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Waalwijk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City FC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Almere City FC win, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.