Netherlands · Tweede Divisie · Regular Season - 713:30

13:30 UTC

Saturday, 26 September 2026

Yanmar Stadion · Analysis updated 01:49 UTC

Almere City II vs Barendrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.91 expected goals for Almere City II and 1.48 for Barendrecht, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives Almere City II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws roughly 33% of the time.

Model pick

Almere City II to Win

66.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.91 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Almere City II win67%
Draw16%
Barendrecht win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals81%
Over 3.5 goals64%
Both teams to score73%

Correct score

  • 2–17.8%
  • 3–17.5%
  • 2–25.7%
  • 3–25.6%
  • 4–15.5%

Why the model likes this

  • Barendrecht away threat

    Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Almere City II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 16% / 17% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.91 goals for Almere City II and 1.48 for Barendrecht, a combined 4.38 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 73%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Almere City II

    Barendrecht

    • 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs HHC · 1-3 (L)
    • 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 2-5 (L)
    • 2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoek · 4-2 (W)
    • 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 1-4 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Tweede Divisie table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Sparta Rotterdam II110053
    2Quick Boys110053
    3De Treffers110043
    4Almere City II110043
    5HHC110023
    6Hoek110023
    7Kloetinge110023
    8Ijsselmeervogels110013
    9Spakenburg110013
    10Kozakken Boys1001-10
    11Katwijk1001-10
    12AFC Amsterdam1001-20
    13Barendrecht1001-20
    14Koninklijke HFC1001-20
    15GVVV Veenendaal1001-40
    16Rijnsburgse Boys1001-40
    17ROHDA Raalte1001-50
    18RKAV Volendam1001-50

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.