Yanmar Stadion · Analysis updated 13:22 UTC
Almere City II vs Barendrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Almere City II and 1.29 for Barendrecht, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Almere City II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Almere City II win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Almere City II home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barendrecht away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almere City II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Almere City II and 1.29 for Barendrecht, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–27.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.80 (model 40.6% vs market 32.7%, edge +7.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.80 | 32.7% | 40.6% | 2.46 | +7.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 51.8% | 52.7% | 1.90 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 28.5% | 29.0% | 3.45 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 23.8% | 23.7% | 4.22 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.4% | 76.3% | 1.31 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 47.7% | 47.3% | 2.11 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.7% | 71.0% | 1.41 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 67.3% | 59.4% | 1.68 | -7.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Almere City II
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs De Treffers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barendrecht · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Hoek · 2-2 (D)
Barendrecht
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Amsterdam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs HHC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tweede Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 25 |
| 2 | De Treffers | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Kozakken Boys | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Ijsselmeervogels | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | HHC | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Barendrecht | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | GVVV Veenendaal | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | RKAV Volendam | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | AFC Amsterdam | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Katwijk | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 11 |
| 14 | Almere City II | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Hoek | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Koninklijke HFC | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Kloetinge | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -23 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Almere City II win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.