Yanmar Stadion · Analysis updated 02:40 UTC
Almere City II vs Ijsselmeervogels Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Almere City II and 1.51 for Ijsselmeervogels, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Ijsselmeervogels the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Almere City II home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ijsselmeervogels away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ijsselmeervogels to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Almere City II and 1.51 for Ijsselmeervogels, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Almere City II
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs De Treffers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barendrecht · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Hoek · 2-2 (D)
Ijsselmeervogels
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spakenburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs GVVV Veenendaal · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Koninklijke HFC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs HHC · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tweede Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | De Treffers | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Ijsselmeervogels | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Kozakken Boys | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | HHC | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Barendrecht | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | GVVV Veenendaal | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | RKAV Volendam | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Katwijk | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | Almere City II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | AFC Amsterdam | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 13 |
| 15 | Hoek | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Koninklijke HFC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 | Kloetinge | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -24 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.