· Analysis updated 09:16 UTC
Almería II vs Alhaurino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Almería II and 0.70 for Alhaurino, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives Almería II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Almería II win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Almería II home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Alhaurino away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almería II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Almería II and 0.70 for Alhaurino, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 2–013.2%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.0%
Recent form
Almería II
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Granada II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Málaga II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cantoria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Porcuna · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD San Pedro · 0-1 (L)
Alhaurino
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Melilla · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Motril · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Churriana Vega · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almería II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada II · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Almería II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Arenas Armilla | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Motril | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Marbelli | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | UD San Pedro | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Málaga II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Granada II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Porcuna | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 12 | Alhaurino | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Torre del Mar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Huétor Vega | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Atletico de Marbella | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Mancha Real | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Cantoria | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Almería II win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.