Almeria vs Burgos Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Almeria and 0.82 for Burgos, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Almeria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Almeria win

57.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.66 – 0.82

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Almeria home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Burgos away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almeria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Almeria and 0.82 for Burgos, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Almeria win57%

Draw24%

Burgos win19%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.8%
2–011.5%
1–111.4%
2–19.5%
0–08.3%

Recent form

Almeria

2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Burgos · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cordoba · 2-0 (W)

Burgos

2026-10-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Almeria · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	10	8	0	2	13	24
2	Castellón	10	7	2	1	14	23
3	Eibar	10	7	1	2	9	22
4	Granada CF	11	6	2	3	4	20
5	Sporting Gijon	10	6	1	3	2	19
6	Girona	10	5	3	2	8	18
7	Mallorca	10	5	3	2	7	18
8	Burgos	10	5	2	3	3	17
9	Oviedo	10	5	2	3	3	17
10	Sabadell	10	4	4	2	2	16
11	Eldense	10	4	2	4	0	14
12	Tenerife	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	0	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	10	3	3	4	-1	12
15	Cordoba	10	4	0	6	-5	12
16	Las Palmas	10	3	2	5	-6	11
17	Leganes	10	3	2	5	-9	11
18	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	-4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	2	2	6	-7	8
20	Cadiz	10	1	4	5	-2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	1	2	7	-13	5
22	Albacete	10	0	1	9	-16	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Almeria win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.