Almudévar vs Binéfar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Almudévar and 1.27 for Binéfar, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Almudévar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Almudévar win

48.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.27

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Almudévar home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almudévar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Almudévar and 1.27 for Binéfar, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Almudévar win49%

Draw23%

Binéfar win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–19.5%
1–08.5%
2–07.5%
1–26.9%

Recent form

Almudévar

2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ejea · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca II · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cuarte · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Illueca · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Caspe · 0-2 (L)

Binéfar

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza II	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Ejea	6	5	0	1	7	15
3	Brea	6	4	2	0	8	14
4	Fraga	6	3	2	1	4	11
5	Cuarte	6	3	1	2	5	10
6	Épila	6	3	1	2	3	10
7	Atlético Monzón	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Caspe	6	2	3	1	3	9
9	Almudévar	6	2	1	3	1	7
10	Binéfar	6	2	1	3	-1	7
11	Huesca II	6	1	4	1	-1	7
12	La Almunia	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Illueca	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	CDJ Tamarite	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	CD Sietamo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Andorra CF	6	1	2	3	-6	5
17	Belchite 97	6	0	2	4	-11	2
18	Robres	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Almudévar win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.