Municipal Stadium Alpendorada · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Alpendorada vs Beira-Mar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Alpendorada and 0.75 for Beira-Mar, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Alpendorada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alpendorada win
51.1% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alpendorada home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beira-Mar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–19.2%
Recent form
Alpendorada
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mação · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Machico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rebordosa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Camacha · 1-2 (L)
Beira-Mar
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ovarense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro Daire · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs União Lamas · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · Alpendorada 0-1 Beira-Mar (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2025-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Alpendorada 1-1 Beira-Mar (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2025-04-13T15:00:00.000Z · Alpendorada 1-2 Beira-Mar (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2025-01-05T15:00:00.000Z · Alpendorada 0-2 Beira-Mar (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2023-01-29T16:00:00.000Z · Alpendorada 1-2 Beira-Mar (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2022-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · Alpendorada 0-4 Beira-Mar (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Camacha | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Salgueiros | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | União Lamas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Estrela Calheta | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Beira-Mar | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alpendorada win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.