Municipal Stadium Alpendorada · Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Alpendorada vs Machico Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Alpendorada and 1.51 for Machico, a combined total of 2.24. That distribution gives Machico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Machico win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alpendorada home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Machico away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Machico to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 18% / 26% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Alpendorada and 1.51 for Machico, a combined 2.24 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.1%
- 0–212.1%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Alpendorada
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mação · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Machico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rebordosa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Camacha · 1-2 (L)
Machico
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alpendorada · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgueiros · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Camacha · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Beira-Mar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela Calheta · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Camacha | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Salgueiros | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | União Lamas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Estrela Calheta | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Beira-Mar | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Machico win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.