Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadium · Analysis updated 14:23 UTC
Altay vs Bursa Yıldırımspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Altay and 1.02 for Bursa Yıldırımspor, a combined total of 1.87. That distribution gives Bursa Yıldırımspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.5% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Altay home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bursa Yıldırımspor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bursa Yıldırımspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 30% / 32% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Altay and 1.02 for Bursa Yıldırımspor, a combined 1.87 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 0–015.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–28.0%
Recent form
Altay
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Uşak Spor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alanya 1221 FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bucaspor 1928 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nilüfer Belediye · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Söke 1970 · 2-4 (L)
Bursa Yıldırımspor
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alanya 1221 FK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Amasyaspor 1968 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Bucaspor 1928 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nilüfer Belediye · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Karsiyaka · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nilüfer Belediye | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Etimesgut SK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Anadolu Üniversitesi | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 4 | Bursa Yıldırımspor | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Eskişehirspor | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 |
| 6 | Ayvalikgucu | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Balıkesirspor | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Bigaspor | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Söke 1970 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Altay | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Gaziemirspor | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Uşak Spor | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Karsiyaka | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Bucaspor 1928 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | Akşehirspor | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 16 | Kepezspor | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 17 | Denizli İYG | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
| 18 | Alanya 1221 FK | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.