Altay vs İzmir Çoruhlu FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Altay and 0.89 for İzmir Çoruhlu FK, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Altay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Altay win

56.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.69 – 0.89

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Altay home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Altay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Altay and 0.89 for İzmir Çoruhlu FK, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Altay win56%

Draw24%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.8%
1–111.4%
2–010.8%
2–19.6%
0–07.6%

Recent form

Altay

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Uşak Spor · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alanya 1221 FK · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bucaspor 1928 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nilüfer Belediye · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Söke 1970 · 2-4 (L)

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Lig - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kütahyaspor	30	24	3	3	51	75
2	Eskişehirspor	30	22	5	3	56	71
3	Karsiyaka	30	20	7	3	45	67
4	Ayvalikgucu	30	18	5	7	32	59
5	Balıkesirspor	30	17	7	6	35	58
6	Uşak Spor	30	15	3	12	0	48
7	Denizli İYG	30	14	5	11	4	47
8	Alanya 1221 FK	30	10	8	12	-5	38
9	Tire 2021 FK	30	10	7	13	8	37
10	Söke 1970	30	10	5	15	-4	35
11	Anadolu Üniversitesi	30	9	8	13	2	35
12	Altay	30	9	7	14	-12	28
13	İzmir Çoruhlu FK	30	6	5	19	-38	23
14	Afjet Afyonspor	30	5	7	18	-30	22
15	Bornova 1877	30	5	6	19	-33	21
16	Nazilli Spor	30	0	4	26	-111	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Altay win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.