· Analysis updated 22:14 UTC
Altglienicke vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Altglienicke and 1.25 for Erzgebirge Aue, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Altglienicke the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Altglienicke win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Altglienicke home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Erzgebirge Aue away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Altglienicke to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Altglienicke and 1.25 for Erzgebirge Aue, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Altglienicke
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RSV Eintracht · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemnitzer FC · 0-2 (L)
Erzgebirge Aue
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Greifswalder FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 31 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Altglienicke | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | BFC Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 7 | Erzgebirge Aue | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 24 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | Magdeburg II | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | BFC Preussen | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | Tasmania Berlin | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
| 16 | Hertha BSC II | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 17 | RSV Eintracht | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 9 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 14 | 2 | 0 | 12 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Altglienicke win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.