· Analysis updated 18:50 UTC
Alton Town vs Havant & Wville Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Alton Town and 1.72 for Havant & Wville, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Alton Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alton Town home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alton Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Alton Town and 1.72 for Havant & Wville, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.3%
Recent form
Alton Town
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ashford Town (Middlesex) · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-08-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Supermarine · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swindon Supermarine · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wincanton Town · 5-0 (W)
- 2024-08-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleet Town · 1-4 (L)
Havant & Wville
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bath City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hanworth Villa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Basingstoke Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wimborne Town · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hanwell Town · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.