Moss Lane · Referee Alan Young · Analysis updated 14:23 UTC
Altrincham vs FC Halifax Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Altrincham and 2.25 for FC Halifax Town, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives FC Halifax Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Halifax Town win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Altrincham home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Halifax Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–36.3%
- 2–16.2%
Recent form
Altrincham
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Fylde · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hartlepool · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Woking · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Eastleigh · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Forest Green · 2-1 (W)
FC Halifax Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Solihull Moors · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Boston United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worthing · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutton Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wealdstone · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · Altrincham 2-1 FC Halifax Town (National League)
- 2026-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · Altrincham 0-1 FC Halifax Town (National League)
- 2025-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Altrincham 1-2 FC Halifax Town (National League)
- 2025-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · Altrincham 3-0 FC Halifax Town (National League)
- 2024-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Altrincham 0-0 FC Halifax Town (National League)
- 2024-04-24T18:00:00.000Z · Altrincham 4-2 FC Halifax Town (National League)
- 2024-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Altrincham 0-0 FC Halifax Town (National League)
- 2023-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Altrincham 1-2 FC Halifax Town (National League)
- 2023-12-12T19:45:00.000Z · Altrincham 0-0 FC Halifax Town (FA Trophy)
- 2023-04-01T14:00:00.000Z · Altrincham 1-1 FC Halifax Town (FA Trophy)
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 38 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 28 |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 25 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 21 |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 18 |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -6 | 15 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Halifax Town win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.