Altrincham vs Kidderminster Harriers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Altrincham and 0.98 for Kidderminster Harriers, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Altrincham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Altrincham win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Altrincham home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kidderminster Harriers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Altrincham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Altrincham and 0.98 for Kidderminster Harriers, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Altrincham win53%

Draw25%

Kidderminster Harriers win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–012.1%
1–111.8%
2–09.8%
2–19.6%
0–07.4%

Recent form

Altrincham

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Fylde · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hartlepool · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Woking · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Eastleigh · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Forest Green · 2-1 (W)

Kidderminster Harriers

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutton Utd · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Boreham Wood · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeovil Town · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Woking · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gateshead · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	13	11	2	0	21	35
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	14	31
3	Southend	13	8	3	2	12	27
4	Yeovil Town	13	7	4	2	17	25
5	Worthing	13	7	3	3	9	24
6	Altrincham	13	8	0	5	1	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	7	2	4	6	23
8	Barrow	13	6	3	4	6	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	7	0	6	-4	21
10	FC Halifax Town	13	6	2	5	7	20
11	Kidderminster Harriers	13	5	5	3	3	20
12	Aldershot Town	13	5	3	5	2	18
13	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	-4	18
14	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	-6	18
15	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	3	17
16	Woking	13	4	3	6	0	15
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	-3	15
18	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	-9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	3	3	7	-7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	-7	12
21	Boston United	14	3	3	8	-10	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	3	1	8	-6	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	2	1	10	-22	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	-23	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Altrincham win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.