· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Altyn Asyr vs Arkadag Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Altyn Asyr and 2.75 for Arkadag, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Arkadag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arkadag win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Altyn Asyr home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arkadag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 18% / 17% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Altyn Asyr and 2.75 for Arkadag, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–37.5%
- 1–16.0%
- 2–26.0%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
Altyn Asyr
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Aşgabat · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ahal · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nebitci · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Şagadam · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arkadag · 2-5 (L)
Arkadag
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aşgabat · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altyn Asyr · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Ahal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Goa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Merw · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ýokary Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 72 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 22 |
| 5 | Nebitci | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -36 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arkadag win, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.