Sportni park Aluminij · Referee Z. Jazbec · Analysis updated 14:47 UTC
Aluminij vs Koper Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Aluminij and 1.13 for Koper, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Koper the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.5% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aluminij home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Koper away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Koper to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 31% / 30% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Aluminij and 1.13 for Koper, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–27.9%
Recent form
Aluminij
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 0-0 (D)
Koper
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nafta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Bravo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.