Sportni park Aluminij · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Aluminij vs Radomlje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Aluminij and 1.15 for Radomlje, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Aluminij the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Aluminij win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aluminij home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Radomlje away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aluminij to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Aluminij and 1.15 for Radomlje, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Aluminij
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 0-0 (D)
Radomlje
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Brinje-Grosuplje · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Maribor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Nafta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Bravo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aluminij win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.