Estadio Jose Maria Minella · Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Alvarado vs Argentino Monte Maíz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Alvarado and 0.37 for Argentino Monte Maíz, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Alvarado the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alvarado win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alvarado home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Argentino Monte Maíz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alvarado to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 25% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Alvarado and 0.37 for Argentino Monte Maíz, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–023.0%
- 2–017.3%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–08.6%
Recent form
Alvarado
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 2-0 (W)
Argentino Monte Maíz
- 2026-08-30T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alvarado win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.