Estadio Jose Maria Minella · Analysis updated 07:53 UTC
Alvarado vs Atenas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Alvarado and 0.62 for Atenas, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Alvarado the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alvarado win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alvarado home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atenas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alvarado to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 30% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Alvarado and 0.62 for Atenas, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.2%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–012.0%
- 0–19.6%
Recent form
Alvarado
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
Atenas
- 2026-09-27T22:30:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracan Las Heras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alvarado win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.