Estadio Jose Maria Minella · Analysis updated 13:12 UTC
Alvarado vs Defensores de Belgrano VR Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Alvarado and 0.93 for Defensores de Belgrano VR, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Alvarado the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alvarado win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alvarado home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Defensores de Belgrano VR away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alvarado to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 28% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Alvarado and 0.93 for Defensores de Belgrano VR, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.3%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–09.4%
Recent form
Alvarado
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
Defensores de Belgrano VR
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alvarado win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.