Estadio Jose Maria Minella · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Alvarado vs Huracan Las Heras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Alvarado and 0.33 for Huracan Las Heras, a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives Alvarado the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 20% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alvarado win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alvarado home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Huracan Las Heras away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alvarado to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 28% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Alvarado and 0.33 for Huracan Las Heras, a combined 1.65 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–025.4%
- 0–019.2%
- 2–016.9%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–07.4%
Recent form
Alvarado
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
Huracan Las Heras
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Villa Mitre · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · Alvarado 1-0 Huracan Las Heras (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alvarado win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 20% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.