· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Alvechurch vs Bromsgrove Sporting Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Alvechurch and 1.14 for Bromsgrove Sporting, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Bromsgrove Sporting the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alvechurch home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bromsgrove Sporting away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–27.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 56.8% vs market 47.3%, edge +9.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 56.8% | 1.76 | +9.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 69.8% | 70.6% | 1.42 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 38.2% | 38.6% | 2.59 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.3% | 29.5% | 3.39 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 68.3% | 68.1% | 1.47 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 61.9% | 61.5% | 1.63 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.70 | 32.5% | 32.0% | 3.13 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 43.2% | 2.31 | -9.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Alvechurch
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stratford Town · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Spalding United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spalding United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 0-1 (L)
Bromsgrove Sporting
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Anstey Nomads · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Banbury United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kettering Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Bedford · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bury · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-17T19:45:00.000Z · Alvechurch 4-1 Bromsgrove Sporting (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2025-08-12T18:45:00.000Z · Alvechurch 1-2 Bromsgrove Sporting (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2025-03-11T19:45:00.000Z · Alvechurch 2-1 Bromsgrove Sporting (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2024-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Alvechurch 2-0 Bromsgrove Sporting (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2024-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Alvechurch 1-0 Bromsgrove Sporting (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2023-11-21T19:45:00.000Z · Alvechurch 1-1 Bromsgrove Sporting (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2023-02-14T19:45:00.000Z · Alvechurch 0-0 Bromsgrove Sporting (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2022-08-16T18:45:00.000Z · Alvechurch 1-3 Bromsgrove Sporting (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
Non League Premier - Southern Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 32 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 31 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Rushall Olympic | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Needham Market | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Peterborough Sports | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 7 | Kettering Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvechurch | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 9 | Anstey Nomads | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Racing Club Warwick | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Halesowen Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Stourbridge | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Redditch United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Hitchin Town | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Bishop's Stortford | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 16 | Banbury United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Leiston | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Stratford Town | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 19 | Leamington | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 20 | Worcester City | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -32 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.