· Analysis updated 01:46 UTC
Alvechurch vs Bury Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Alvechurch and 1.10 for Bury Town, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Alvechurch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alvechurch win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alvechurch home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bury Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alvechurch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Alvechurch and 1.10 for Bury Town, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Alvechurch
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stratford Town · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Spalding United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spalding United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 0-1 (L)
Bury Town
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hitchin Town · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Real Bedford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvechurch · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Southern Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 32 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 31 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Rushall Olympic | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Needham Market | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Peterborough Sports | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 7 | Kettering Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvechurch | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 9 | Anstey Nomads | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Racing Club Warwick | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Halesowen Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Stourbridge | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Redditch United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Hitchin Town | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Bishop's Stortford | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 16 | Banbury United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Leiston | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Stratford Town | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 19 | Leamington | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 20 | Worcester City | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -32 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alvechurch win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.