· Analysis updated 23:11 UTC
Alverca U19 vs SC Farense U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Alverca U19 and 1.56 for SC Farense U19, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Alverca U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alverca U19 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SC Farense U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alverca U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Alverca U19 and 1.56 for SC Farense U19, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Alverca U19
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs União Leiria U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica U19 · 1-2 (L)
SC Farense U19
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs União Leiria U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica U19 · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · Alverca U19 2-3 SC Farense U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2024-01-06T15:00:00.000Z · Alverca U19 1-0 SC Farense U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2023-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · Alverca U19 1-3 SC Farense U19 (Júniores U19)
Júniores U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Guimaraes U19 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 1 | Benfica U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Porto U19 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Sporting CP U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 3 | Santa Clara U19 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Rio Ave U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Torreense U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu U19 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Oriental U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Casa Pia U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Feirense U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Mafra U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Famalicão U19 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Farense U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | Moreirense U19 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | União Leiria U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
| 10 | Vizela U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.