Estadio Municipal de El Alto · Referee I. N. Mendez Chavez · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for Always Ready and 0.63 for Independiente Petrolero, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Always Ready the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Always Ready win
81.1% probability
Expected goals
2.73 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Always Ready home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente Petrolero away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Always Ready to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 13% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.73 goals for Always Ready and 0.63 for Independiente Petrolero, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.9%
- 3–011.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–08.0%
Recent form
Always Ready
- 2026-10-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Potosí · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Tomayapo · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oruro · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Potosí · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs ABB · 1-4 (L)
Independiente Petrolero
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Tomayapo · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T23:15:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Universitario de Vinto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Always Ready | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 36 | 48 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 48 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 42 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 35 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 33 |
| 6 | Aurora | 21 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | -10 | 29 |
| 8 | Nacional Potosí | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 28 |
| 9 | Blooming | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 27 |
| 10 | Independiente Petrolero | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -16 | 24 |
| 12 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | -19 | 21 |
| 13 | ABB | 21 | 6 | 2 | 13 | -15 | 20 |
| 14 | Universitario de Vinto | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -15 | 18 |
| 15 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -13 | 17 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -24 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Always Ready win, at 81.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.