Amagaju vs Al Merreikh Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Amagaju and 0.54 for Al Merreikh, a combined total of 1.57. That distribution gives Amagaju the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Amagaju win

46.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 0.54

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Amagaju home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amagaju to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 34% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Amagaju and 0.54 for Al Merreikh, a combined 1.57 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 21% and both teams to score at 27%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.

Match result (1X2)

Amagaju win47%

Draw34%

Al Merreikh win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals47%

Over 2.5 goals21%

Over 3.5 goals8%

Both teams to score27%

Correct score

1–021.4%
0–020.7%
1–111.6%
0–111.2%
2–011.0%

Recent form

Amagaju

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunrise · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mukura · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Merreikh · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gicumbi · 0-1 (L)

Al Merreikh

2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Power Dynamos · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Power Dynamos · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs APR · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National Soccer League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gicumbi	4	3	0	1	2	9
2	Gorilla	5	2	2	1	1	8
3	Marines	4	2	1	1	4	7
4	Amagaju	5	2	1	2	4	7
5	Mukura	4	2	1	1	2	7
6	Etincelles	5	2	1	2	-4	7
7	Bugesera	3	2	0	1	3	6
8	Sunrise	5	1	3	1	-3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	1	2	2	-3	5
10	Police	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	APR	1	1	0	0	2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	1	0	0	2	3
15	Musanze	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1	0	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	0	1	1	-1	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Amagaju win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.