· Analysis updated 23:37 UTC
Amagaju vs Kiyovu Sports Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Amagaju and 1.08 for Kiyovu Sports, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Kiyovu Sports the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kiyovu Sports win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amagaju home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kiyovu Sports away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kiyovu Sports to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 21% / 33% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Amagaju and 1.08 for Kiyovu Sports, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.6%
- 0–018.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–210.6%
Recent form
Amagaju
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunrise · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mukura · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Merreikh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gicumbi · 0-1 (L)
Kiyovu Sports
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Marines · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Musanze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorilla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Mukura | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Gicumbi | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Marines | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Amagaju | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Sunrise | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 7 |
| 7 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Musanze | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Gasogi United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Police | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kiyovu Sports win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.