Stade Huye · Analysis updated 06:42 UTC
Amagaju vs Sunrise Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Amagaju and 0.85 for Sunrise, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Amagaju the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Amagaju win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amagaju home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunrise away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–010.1%
- 0–19.4%
Recent form
Amagaju
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunrise · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mukura · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Merreikh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gicumbi · 0-1 (L)
Sunrise
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gasogi United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Etincelles · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · Amagaju 4-0 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
- 2024-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · Amagaju 1-0 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
- 2023-12-08T13:00:00.000Z · Amagaju 1-2 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
- 2019-05-05T13:30:00.000Z · Amagaju 1-1 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
- 2018-12-22T13:30:00.000Z · Amagaju 0-2 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Gorilla | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Amagaju | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Mukura | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunrise | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Gasogi United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amagaju win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.