Amarante Stadium · Referee A. Rodrigues · Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Amarante vs União de Leiria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Amarante and 1.14 for União de Leiria, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives União de Leiria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.5% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amarante home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
União de Leiria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates União de Leiria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 28% / 30% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for Amarante and 1.14 for União de Leiria, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.4%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–28.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 60.8% vs market 51.5%, edge +9.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 60.8% | 1.64 | +9.3 |
| Match result | Home | 3.30 | 27.0% | 27.5% | 3.64 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 72.3% | 72.5% | 1.38 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.6% | 69.6% | 1.44 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 58.0% | 57.9% | 1.73 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.7% | 30.4% | 3.29 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.10 | 42.4% | 42.1% | 2.38 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 39.2% | 2.55 | -9.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Amarante
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte da Barca · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs União de Leiria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica B · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela · 0-0 (D)
União de Leiria
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs O Elvas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Amarante · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.