Princess Magogo Stadium · Analysis updated 06:33 UTC
Amazulu vs Golden Arrows Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Amazulu and 0.60 for Golden Arrows, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Amazulu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
77.7% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amazulu home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Golden Arrows away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.2%
- 1–020.2%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.6%
Recent form
Amazulu
- 2026-10-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Polokwane City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marumo Gallants · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Richards Bay · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 2-5 (L)
Golden Arrows
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaizer Chiefs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Siwelele · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Stellenbosch · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-06T17:30:00.000Z · Amazulu 1-1 Golden Arrows (Premier Soccer League)
- 2025-12-02T17:30:00.000Z · Amazulu 1-0 Golden Arrows (Premier Soccer League)
- 2025-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · Amazulu 1-0 Golden Arrows (Premier Soccer League)
- 2025-01-04T13:30:00.000Z · Amazulu 0-0 Golden Arrows (Premier Soccer League)
- 2024-05-25T13:00:00.000Z · Amazulu 1-3 Golden Arrows (Premier Soccer League)
- 2023-11-12T13:30:00.000Z · Amazulu 3-1 Golden Arrows (Premier Soccer League)
- 2023-11-04T17:00:00.000Z · Amazulu 3-0 Golden Arrows (League Cup)
- 2023-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · Amazulu 0-1 Golden Arrows (Premier Soccer League)
- 2022-08-24T17:30:00.000Z · Amazulu 0-1 Golden Arrows (Premier Soccer League)
- 2022-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · Amazulu 1-2 Golden Arrows (Premier Soccer League)
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Milford FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Kaizer Chiefs | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Chippa United | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Durban City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Polokwane City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kruger United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | TS Galaxy | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Siwelele | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Richards Bay | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.