Diyarbakir Stadium · Referee Ali Sansalan, Türkiye · Analysis updated 22:33 UTC
Amed vs Beşiktaş Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Amed and 1.52 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Beşiktaş the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beşiktaş win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amed home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beşiktaş away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beşiktaş to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 24% / 26% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Amed and 1.52 for Beşiktaş, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.5%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 51.2% vs market 41.1%, edge +10.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.1% | 51.2% | 1.95 | +10.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.95 | 48.1% | 50.2% | 1.99 | +2.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.6% | 25.8% | 3.88 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.85 | 49.8% | 49.8% | 2.01 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.75 | 24.6% | 24.4% | 4.10 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.2% | 1.35 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 76.9% | 75.6% | 1.32 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.9% | 48.8% | 2.05 | -10.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Amed
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Başakşehir · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-2 (L)
Beşiktaş
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzurumspor FK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · Amed 3-2 Beşiktaş (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beşiktaş win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.