Diyarbakir Stadium · Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
Amed vs Rizespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Amed and 1.30 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Amed the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Amed win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amed home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rizespor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amed to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Amed and 1.30 for Rizespor, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.7%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Amed
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Başakşehir · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-2 (L)
Rizespor
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Göztepe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alanyaspor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gaziantep FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Samsunspor · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amed win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.