Colombia · Primera A · Clausura - 1200:30

1 – 0

Thursday, 24 September 2026

Olímpico Pascual Guerrero · Referee Jairo Londono, Colombia · Analysis updated 00:57 UTC

America de Cali vs Águilas Doradas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for America de Cali and 0.74 for Águilas Doradas, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives America de Cali the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

America de Cali win

55.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.51 – 0.74

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

America de Cali home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Águilas Doradas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

America de Cali win56%

Draw26%

Águilas Doradas win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–015.9%
2–012.0%
1–111.8%
0–010.5%
2–18.9%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.2%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 59.3% vs market 51.5%, edge +7.8 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	1.80	51.5%	59.3%	1.69	+7.8
Double chance	Home/Away	1.29	73.5%	74.0%	1.35	+0.5
Match result	Home	1.65	55.5%	55.7%	1.80	+0.2
Double chance	Draw/Away	2.15	44.1%	44.3%	2.26	+0.2
Match result	Away	5.00	18.3%	18.3%	5.46	-0.0
Match result	Draw	3.50	26.2%	26.0%	3.85	-0.2
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.15	82.4%	81.7%	1.22	-0.7
Both teams to score	Yes	1.91	48.5%	40.7%	2.46	-7.8

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

America de Cali

2026-10-12T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellin · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-05T01:15:00.000Z · A vs Llaneros · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-24T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Águilas Doradas · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T23:10:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Tolima · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Pasto · 0-1 (L)

Águilas Doradas

2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Tolima · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-13T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Bucaramanga · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Valledupar · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaguares · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-28T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Cali · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-20T21:00:00.000Z · America de Cali 1-0 Águilas Doradas (Primera A)
2025-07-27T01:20:00.000Z · America de Cali 2-1 Águilas Doradas (Primera A)
2025-04-30T23:00:00.000Z · America de Cali 1-0 Águilas Doradas (Primera A)
2024-07-16T23:10:00.000Z · America de Cali 2-1 Águilas Doradas (Primera A)
2024-01-21T01:20:00.000Z · America de Cali 0-1 Águilas Doradas (Primera A)
2023-09-20T23:10:00.000Z · America de Cali 2-2 Águilas Doradas (Primera A)
2023-04-12T01:20:00.000Z · America de Cali 1-3 Águilas Doradas (Primera A)
2022-11-30T23:30:00.000Z · America de Cali 1-1 Águilas Doradas (Primera A)
2022-11-05T21:30:00.000Z · America de Cali 0-2 Águilas Doradas (Primera A)
2022-08-10T00:30:00.000Z · America de Cali 2-0 Águilas Doradas (Primera A)

Primera A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	-17	10
1	America de Cali	15	9	4	2	18	31
2	Deportivo Cali	16	8	6	2	14	30
3	Atletico Nacional	14	9	2	3	16	29
4	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	6	7	1	9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	7	4	3	7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	7	2	5	2	23
8	Once Caldas	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Cucuta	15	6	3	6	-4	21
10	Deportes Tolima	15	5	5	5	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	4	7	4	-1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	3	8	4	-3	17
13	Llaneros	15	5	2	8	-4	17
14	Junior	15	3	6	6	-3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	4	3	7	-11	15
16	Chico	15	4	3	8	-13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	2	8	5	-8	14
18	Fortaleza FC	15	1	9	5	-6	12
19	Jaguares	14	2	4	8	-12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	2	3	9	-13	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is America de Cali win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.