Arena Independência · Referee Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes, Brazil · Analysis updated 10:55 UTC
America Mineiro vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for America Mineiro and 1.39 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Athletic Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Athletic Club win
51.1% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
America Mineiro home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.8%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–09.0%
Recent form
America Mineiro
- 2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Operario-PR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Criciuma · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Goianiense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-1 (L)
Athletic Club
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Avai · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-06T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Goias · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Sport Recife · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T21:30:00.000Z · America Mineiro 1-3 Athletic Club (Serie B)
- 2026-04-05T23:00:00.000Z · America Mineiro 1-1 Athletic Club (Serie B)
- 2026-01-11T22:30:00.000Z · America Mineiro 3-0 Athletic Club (Mineiro - 1)
- 2025-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · America Mineiro 2-0 Athletic Club (Serie B)
- 2025-07-08T00:00:00.000Z · America Mineiro 0-1 Athletic Club (Serie B)
- 2023-02-07T23:00:00.000Z · America Mineiro 1-1 Athletic Club (Mineiro - 1)
- 2022-02-05T22:30:00.000Z · America Mineiro 1-1 Athletic Club (Mineiro - 1)
- 2021-03-03T22:15:00.000Z · America Mineiro 1-0 Athletic Club (Mineiro - 1)
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 64 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 62 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 61 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 59 |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 55 |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | -1 | 51 |
| 10 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 49 |
| 11 | São Bernardo | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 49 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 47 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 47 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | -12 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -7 | 32 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | 3 | 6 | 26 | -55 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletic Club win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.