· Analysis updated 12:27 UTC
América RN U20 vs Sobradinho U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for América RN U20 and 1.23 for Sobradinho U20, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives América RN U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
América RN U20 win
66.8% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
América RN U20 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sobradinho U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates América RN U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for América RN U20 and 1.23 for Sobradinho U20, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–16.9%
- 3–06.4%
Recent form
América RN U20
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Paysandu PA U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Piauí U20 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs QFC U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-01-16T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio U20 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-01-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol U20 · 2-0 (W)
Sobradinho U20
- 2026-08-15T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Capital TO U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Canaã U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Canaã U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Brazlândia FC SAF U20 · 11-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gama U20 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
São Paulo Youth Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is América RN U20 win, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.