Arena das Dunas · Analysis updated 23:50 UTC
America-RN vs Laguna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for America-RN and 0.27 for Laguna, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives America-RN the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 21% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
America-RN win
82.0% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
America-RN home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Laguna away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates America-RN to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 15% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for America-RN and 0.27 for Laguna, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–020.4%
- 1–018.7%
- 3–014.9%
- 0–08.6%
- 4–08.1%
Recent form
America-RN
- 2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gama · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Gama · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Trem · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Trem · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense PI · 1-0 (W)
Laguna
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Central SC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T19:00:00.000Z · H vs ABC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maguary PE · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs America-RN · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sousa · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is America-RN win, at 82.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 21% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.