Estadio Banorte · Referee C. Sanchez · Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
América W vs Tigres UANL W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.07 expected goals for América W and 1.70 for Tigres UANL W, a combined total of 4.78. That distribution gives América W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
América W win
65.2% probability
Expected goals
3.07 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
América W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tigres UANL W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.0%
- 2–16.8%
- 3–25.9%
- 2–25.8%
- 4–15.3%
Recent form
América W
- 2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey W · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · A vs León W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Atlas W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL W · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Pumas UNAM W · 2-1 (W)
Tigres UANL W
- 2026-10-19T00:06:00.000Z · H vs Querétaro W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Pumas UNAM W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-28T00:06:00.000Z · H vs Atlético San Luis W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca W · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs América W · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-26T01:00:00.000Z · América W 1-0 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-11-23T23:00:00.000Z · América W 0-1 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-11-21T02:00:00.000Z · América W 3-3 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · América W 1-2 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-03-23T02:10:00.000Z · América W 2-1 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-11-18T01:06:00.000Z · América W 2-2 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-11-15T03:00:00.000Z · América W 1-1 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-10-07T02:06:00.000Z · América W 1-0 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-05-21T01:00:00.000Z · América W 0-1 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-05-18T03:00:00.000Z · América W 3-1 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América W | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 31 |
| 2 | Monterrey W | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 31 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 29 |
| 4 | Juárez W | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Toluca W | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 6 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | León W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 12 | Pachuca W | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 13 | Atlas W | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Tijuana W | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -47 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is América W win, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.