Lawson Tama Stadium · Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
American Samoa vs Samoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for American Samoa and 4.50 for Samoa, a combined total of 5.86. That distribution gives Samoa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Samoa win
86.4% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 4.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
American Samoa home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Samoa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Samoa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 6% / 8% / 86% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for American Samoa and 4.50 for Samoa, a combined 5.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
14%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–46.6%
- 1–56.0%
- 1–35.9%
- 0–44.9%
- 2–44.5%
Recent form
American Samoa
- 2026-03-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Guam · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-03-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs US Virgin Islands · 2-5 (L)
- 2024-09-06T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Samoa · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-11-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tonga · 2-6 (L)
- 2023-11-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Northern Mariana Islands · 0-4 (L)
Samoa
- 2024-11-18T06:30:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 0-8 (L)
- 2024-11-15T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Tahiti · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-10-12T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu · 1-4 (L)
- 2024-09-09T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonga · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-09-06T02:00:00.000Z · A vs American Samoa · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pacific Games table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Caledonia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 |
| 2 | Solomon Islands | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 10 |
| 3 | Tahiti | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 4 | Fiji | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 |
| 5 | Tuvalu | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Vanuatu | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Samoa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 9 | Cook Islands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 | 3 |
| 10 | Tonga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 11 | Northern Mariana Islands | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -14 | 3 |
| 12 | American Samoa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -29 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Samoa win, at 86.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.