J.S. Blatter Football Complex Tuanaimato Field 1 · Analysis updated 12:40 UTC
American Samoa vs Tuvalu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for American Samoa and 4.07 for Tuvalu, a combined total of 5.84. That distribution gives Tuvalu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tuvalu win
76.8% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 4.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
American Samoa home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tuvalu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 12% / 11% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for American Samoa and 4.07 for Tuvalu, a combined 5.84 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 91% and both teams to score at 80%, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–45.9%
- 1–35.8%
- 2–45.2%
- 2–35.1%
- 1–54.8%
Recent form
American Samoa
- 2026-03-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Guam · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-03-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs US Virgin Islands · 2-5 (L)
- 2024-09-06T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Samoa · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-11-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tonga · 2-6 (L)
- 2023-11-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Northern Mariana Islands · 0-4 (L)
Tuvalu
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pacific Games table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Caledonia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 |
| 2 | Solomon Islands | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 10 |
| 3 | Tahiti | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 4 | Fiji | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 |
| 5 | Tuvalu | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Vanuatu | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Samoa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 9 | Cook Islands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 | 3 |
| 10 | Tonga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 11 | Northern Mariana Islands | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -14 | 3 |
| 12 | American Samoa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -29 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tuvalu win, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.