Amical Saint-Prex vs Lugano II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Amical Saint-Prex and 1.70 for Lugano II, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Amical Saint-Prex the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Amical Saint-Prex win

58.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.65 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Amical Saint-Prex home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lugano II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amical Saint-Prex to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 18% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Amical Saint-Prex and 1.70 for Lugano II, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Amical Saint-Prex win58%

Draw18%

Lugano II win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals63%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

2–17.7%
3–16.8%
2–26.5%
1–15.8%
3–25.8%

Recent form

Amical Saint-Prex

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Biel-Bienne · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzern II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Boys II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulle · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugano II · 1-0 (W)

Lugano II

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kreuzlingen · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Paradiso · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cham · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schaffhausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Basel II · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

1. Liga Promotion table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Biel-Bienne	11	8	2	1	13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	16	25
3	Cham	11	7	1	3	5	22
4	Bulle	11	6	3	2	8	21
5	Paradiso	11	6	2	3	11	20
6	YF Juventus	11	6	1	4	2	19
7	Grand-Saconnex	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	Basel II	11	5	1	5	0	16
9	Amical Saint-Prex	11	5	1	5	-6	16
10	Kreuzlingen	11	4	3	4	1	15
11	Zürich II	11	4	3	4	0	15
12	Breitenrain	11	4	3	4	-2	15
13	Brühl	11	4	2	5	-2	14
14	Young Boys II	11	3	2	6	-9	11
15	Lugano II	11	3	0	8	-8	9
16	Bavois	11	2	2	7	-4	8
17	Luzern II	11	2	1	8	-12	7
18	Bellinzona	11	1	2	8	-17	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Amical Saint-Prex win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.