· Analysis updated 01:38 UTC
Amiens vs Chambly Thelle FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Amiens and 1.30 for Chambly Thelle FC, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Amiens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amiens home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chambly Thelle FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Amiens
- 2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Valenciennes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Villefranche · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Quevilly · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Orleans · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 0-0 (D)
Chambly Thelle FC
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colmar · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs St Maur Lusitanos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bastia-Borgo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Colombes 92 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Haguenau · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T09:00:00.000Z · Amiens 2-0 Chambly Thelle FC (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-13T13:00:00.000Z · Amiens 0-1 Chambly Thelle FC (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-10-30T13:30:00.000Z · Amiens 1-1 Chambly Thelle FC (Coupe de France)
- 2021-04-17T18:00:00.000Z · Amiens 0-2 Chambly Thelle FC (Ligue 2)
- 2020-12-12T18:00:00.000Z · Amiens 1-1 Chambly Thelle FC (Ligue 2)
- 2020-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · Amiens 0-0 Chambly Thelle FC (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2016-11-12T16:00:00.000Z · Amiens 0-2 Chambly Thelle FC (Coupe de France)
- 2016-01-15T19:00:00.000Z · Amiens 1-0 Chambly Thelle FC (Ligue 3)
- 2015-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Amiens 0-0 Chambly Thelle FC (Ligue 3)
- 2015-02-13T19:00:00.000Z · Amiens 2-2 Chambly Thelle FC (Ligue 3)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.