Stade de la Licorne · Analysis updated 15:30 UTC
Amiens vs Gobelins Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Amiens and 0.46 for Gobelins, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Amiens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Amiens win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 0.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amiens home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gobelins away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amiens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 29% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Amiens and 0.46 for Gobelins, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–022.5%
- 0–017.5%
- 2–014.5%
- 1–110.3%
- 0–18.0%
Recent form
Amiens
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Villefranche · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Quevilly · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Orleans · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Bastia · 3-0 (W)
Gobelins
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Concarneau · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bastia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Caen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Aubagne · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · Amiens 2-4 Gobelins (Friendlies Clubs)
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Amiens | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Cannes | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Fleury 91 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gobelins | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | Villefranche | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amiens win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.